A Hot Maiden (and an insight into my tortured mind!)
It’s not a phrase usually associated with a twilight race at Wolverhampton, comparatively speaking. Especially on a Monday in February, but that’s exactly what we’ve got this afternoon given this is the sole surviving meeting in the UK and Ireland.
12 runners declared, but as I’m ahead of myself today (bucking the weekend’s trend) any non-runners are beyond the blog’s control.
Normally you’d be looking hard at the Master of Middleham’s offering in one of these contests, but this affair has got some other big stables fielding runners, so there’s not much confidence here that the unraced Hacienda will hack up. We also have Hills, Prescott and Cumani in the mix which rather complicates matters.
I can’t see a stand out win bet. If I were feeling lazy I would just say Hacienda. I am not feeling lazy though, I am feeling incisive “ish”. So of the two unraced colts (there is one unraced filly that I have put a line through) I would perhaps just favour the Hills colt Blues Music over Johnston’s Hacienda. The reasoning being that the 7f might just be at the outer edge of Hacienda’s stamina at this point in his career.
Of those with experience under their girths I have had a hard look at Mental Reservation. It’s an interesting name and he is by the speedball Dayjur, of which we see few enough these days. My mental reservation is, again about seeing out the 7f. The other raced horse is now favourite @ 2/1 Mnasikia from Cumani and although not inclined to favour fillies over the colts in maiden races it is probably hard to pick too many holes in her chances.
So I have reduced the field of 12 to 4 – Blues Music, Mnasikia, Hacienda and Mental Reservation. At the prices now it will be hard to make a profit if they are all backed individually. I have ignored another who will be up there in the market: Meehan’s Penrod Ballantyne. This may be foolish. I need a break.
I have had a break at work and am now re-considering the issues. A market check reveals a little bit of morning money for the Meehan runner but much more for the Evans/Hanagan horse – Blues Forever. In from 20s to 9 at lunchtime. More hmmms. I feel like Winnie the Pooh. This is meant to be easy. If you are really intelligent you should know the answer to this high IQ test “Teeth is Hens as Nest is to what?”. Winners are rarer than hen’s teeth round here, but I can’t get the what. Clearly I am not that bright!
Ok, matter at hand. Follow the money, but for these additional reasons: Evans is a money stable, the Johnston horse has drifted a touch, as has the Hills offering. Holding their prices well are the filly Mnasikia and Penrod Ballantyne, but I have question marks about both these winning now. The deal-clincher for me is that Blues Forever is by Oratorio. Oratorio’s all-weather stats are significantly better than the other horses’ sires on offer in the race. Blues Forever is also being dropped back in trip after not quite seeing out the 1m at Lingfield which I see as a positive. Running over further in a race can bring them on. So that’s that then. I am taking the 9s on Blues Forever each-way @ 5.20 Wolves. Main dangers Hacienda and the Cumani filly with a funny name.
NB There is also Blues Music (Hills) that I mentioned earlier. I was keen on this this morning. I am not backing it now. It will probably win.
Answers please on the IQ test – I give up.