2000 Guineas: Stand and Deliver?

I drove back to the county of birth of that famous highwayman last night in an absolute downpour. First I thought:

Have they got this rain at Newmarket? Damn. If so all my thoughts on the 2000 Guineas need re thunk and quick.

and

Damn! I left the cat out. She’s going to be so pissed off with me. Thank God the neighbour has built that funny little shed thing for her to sit in…

As it turned out Southend had not been wetted when I got there and as far as I am aware Newmarket has had had only a light sprinkling and not enough to change the ground description of good to firm.

In the past I have spent weeks going through the runners before the Guineas, but I haven’t had a minute this year. I’ve been trying to do my thinking as I’ve gone along. I’ve watched St Nicholas Abbey’s work at the Curragh, I’ve seen the Elusive one in the Craven and I’ve had eye-witness reports of the Greenham. My job today has been to try and be objective, whittle the big field down a bit to a handful of possibilities and to cross my fingers, a lot.

My shortlist:

Al Zir – I respect this horse but not entirely convinced overall
Fencing Master – I think this horse might run better than his fancied RP Trophy winning stablemate
St Nicholas Abbey – I am not in the habit of backing shorties from Ballydoyle in any case. Not convinced by overall profile and won’t be suffering from shock if it either doesn’t or does win. Great Chamberlain thought that I’m afraid!
Elusive Pimpernel – my idea of a winner. My negative was around the so called “flat spot” coming into The Dip in the Craven. Richard Hills said this morning it didn’t look to him like much of a flat spot, more a case of Ryan Moore waiting, but not in vain.
Dick Turpin – the runner my heart is most attached to. The head has some questions. He is clearly not held in as much regard as his stablemate Canford Cliffs (who does not make my shortlist for reasons of stamina), and is by a bargain basement sort of sire in Arakan. However Arakan came from a good family, despite his race career being not exactly glittering with Group prizes. Arakan’s sire Nureyev ran in the 2000 Guineas 30 years ago in 1980 and won, but was then disqualified for pushing and shoving. He caught a virus and never raced again. If Dick could avenge his grandad today I would be happy. No-one thinks he can really, but in the Greenham he was not stopping. I would settle for a place.
Awzaan – included because of his fine record over 6f as a 2yo. The general opinion seems to be he has too much speed for a Guineas horse having won the Middle Park and the Mill Reef stakes. The Newbury race was run in quite a slow time despite the ground being quick and on balance I reckon he would stay the mile. Possible winner, definite place prospects.

My proposed top three home would be (and I wouldn’t dream of ordering them):

Elusive Pimpernel
Awzaan
Fencing Master
Dick Turpin

Oh, that’s four. Damn.

Bee & My Bleeding Heart (Dicentra spectabilis)

This one of my few non-Rudi ravaged plants and one that has given me a lot of pleasure. That’s Rudolf Nureyev to give him his full name. Is it a sign…

Posted on May 1, 2010, in Horse racing, Punting and tagged , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. 5 Comments.

  1. In an edit: can’t edit the content of main post for reasons of integrity – Awzaan leaves the top three so it now reads

    Elusive
    Dick
    Fencing

    or if you like it alphabetically:-

    Dick
    Elusively
    Fences

  2. You’re welcome to it: the win proved Elusive For Dick.

    Damn.

    He ran up front for nearly the whole way. St James’ Palace maybe, or Irish Guineas.

    Mafki, the winner, had a lovely pedigree for the old miling game but having raced in France I was unfamiliar with his form.

    Damn.

    Never mind I just had the first two in the Palace House Stakes 🙂

  3. This Dick Turpin defeat hurts me. It’s not the money, it’s having a feeling for a horse for months, only to be denied in the last few strides:

    http://makemeadiva.wordpress.com/2009/08/22/highway-robbery/

    It’s persisting in my belief that Dick is better than Canford when the trainer(s) don’t appear to agree:

    http://makemeadiva.wordpress.com/2010/04/24/a-mixed-bag/

    It’s wanting a grandson of Nureyev to write the wrongs of 30 years ago. For me, it’s a better story all round and I’m stinging.

  4. On the bright side the blog continues the trend of predicting things before they happen (my Bleeding Heart in this case).

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