Today The Ledge, Tomorrow The World?

Not the window one, unless I get this all wrong 😉

I haven’t done this in a while either. I am going to narrow the field down to stayers and non-stayers, but truthfully you’d only be looking for a bit of each way value maybe, because the favourite Rewilding has compelling claims to land the last Classic race of the season.

ARCTIC COSMOS – Initially I thought there might be stamina doubts, but I am pretty sure he will stay.  Blinkers not a negative necessarily.  Place prospect.
CORSICA – I don’t like to see this horse in the line-up as a pacemaker.  He’s given me some pleasure this season and is not going to get the trip after fulfilling his allotted role.
DANDINO – Don’t think he’ll stay.
JOSHUA TREE – Don’t think the step up in trip will suit.
MIDAS TOUCH – plenty of stamina to make the frame and could profit if Rewilding is not firing on all cylinders
REWILDING – top-rated, unexposed, could even improve for further.  A good favourite, wondering why he’s not quite evens…
TED SPREAD – He’ll stay alright and has been on my mind for a while as an each way punt.  Shame the ground’s not gone a bit more for him.  Could be denied a place by Midas Touch and Arctic Cosmos.
THEOLOGY – Loads of stamina, short of class?  Not sure about this one to be truthful.  Would not wish to dismiss without examining the evidence further.
TOTAL COMMAND -Stoute horse with stamina, @ 40/1.  Makes no sense to me.  Might turn out to be the best value horse in the race if prepared to overlook the effort in the Great Voltigeur.
SNOW FAIRY – running an owner’s whim I think.  I like to back a girl taking on boys but in this case I feel it would be a waste of money.  Unconvinced and I think the trainer is too.
 
I find the formlines of this race pretty interesting and I think we are basically being asked to judge two sets of runners: those dropping back 2f from the Queen’s Vase and those stepping up 2f from the Great Voltigeur and / or the Gordon Stakes.  The GV is clearly the best race being a Group 2 and those who ran in the Queen’s Vase and then either the GV or the Gordon did not hold their 2m form across to 12f.  So on the basis that the QV runners are doughty gallopers and could not compete with the toe of the 12f runners I am ruling out Theology.  And I should also rule out Total Command, but his GV running was not right given the way he stopped and should possibly be given the benefit of the doubt…

Of those that only ran in the GV we are looking for a potential reversal of form given an extra 2f, the ground being the same.  I honestly don’t think there is a horse in the field that could improve over the 2f more than the 4 lengths Rewilding got them beat by that day.  I think Rewilding will win, Midas Touch should be in close order and the only one in the GV’s first three that might back pedal for the extra 2f is Joshua Tree.  That third spot I have between Arctic Cosmos/Total Command/Ted Spread…

If Stoute didn’t train Total Command I wouldn’t touch it.  I know Ted Spread travels more in hope than expectation so:

1. Rewilding 

2. Midas Touch

3. Arctic Cosmos

For the tricast.  And a sentimental bit of each-way on Ted Spread, unless I love Total Command more by 3.20.  Enjoy.

Last year's race: Mastery prevails which this blog advised as an e/w...

Posted on September 11, 2010, in Be not idle, Horse racing, News, Punting and tagged , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. 3 Comments.

  1. I watched the race in classy fashion with a carrier bag from the 99p shop in the nearest Corals. The audience was me and an old bloke who kept sighing and rattling his crutch – that’s crutch the walking aid!

    So I was all ready to come home and draw a veil over the blog, but thanks to a combination tricast I’ve won a bit \o/

    I don’t think I understand CTCs, but I might be doing more of them. The return was about 13/1 on the stake.

  2. What is all this talk or horses, gambling and crutches?

  3. Snow Fairy would have had my 5 bob.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: