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Today The Ledge, Tomorrow The World?

Not the window one,¬†unless I get this all wrong ūüėČ

I haven’t done this in a while either.¬†I am going to narrow the field down to stayers and non-stayers, but truthfully you’d only be looking for a bit of each way value¬†maybe, because the favourite Rewilding has compelling claims to land the last Classic race of the season.

ARCTIC COSMOS РInitially I thought there might be stamina doubts, but I am pretty sure he will stay.  Blinkers not a negative necessarily.  Place prospect.
CORSICA – I don’t like to see this horse in the line-up as a pacemaker.¬† He’s given me some pleasure this season and is not going to get the trip after fulfilling his allotted role.
DANDINO – Don’t think he’ll stay.
JOSHUA TREE – Don’t think the step up in trip will suit.
MIDAS TOUCH – plenty of stamina to make the frame and could profit if Rewilding is not firing on all cylinders
REWILDING – top-rated, unexposed, could even improve for further.¬† A good favourite, wondering why he’s not quite evens…
TED SPREAD – He’ll stay alright and has been on my mind for a while as an each way punt.¬† Shame the ground’s not gone a bit more for him.¬† Could be denied a place by Midas Touch and Arctic Cosmos.
THEOLOGY РLoads of stamina, short of class?  Not sure about this one to be truthful.  Would not wish to dismiss without examining the evidence further.
TOTAL COMMAND -Stoute horse with stamina, @ 40/1.  Makes no sense to me.  Might turn out to be the best value horse in the race if prepared to overlook the effort in the Great Voltigeur.
SNOW FAIRY¬†– running an owner’s whim I think.¬† I like to back a girl taking on boys but in this case I¬†feel it would be a waste of money.¬†¬†Unconvinced and I think the trainer is too.
 
I find the formlines of this race pretty interesting and I think we are basically being asked to judge two sets of runners: those dropping back 2f from the Queen’s Vase and those stepping up 2f from the Great Voltigeur and / or the Gordon Stakes.¬† The GV is clearly the best race being a Group 2 and those who ran in the Queen’s Vase and then either the GV or the Gordon did not hold their 2m form across to 12f.¬† So on the basis that the QV runners are doughty gallopers and could not compete with the toe of the 12f runners I am ruling out Theology.¬† And I should also rule out Total Command, but his GV running was not right given the way he stopped and should possibly be given the benefit of the doubt…

Of those that only ran in the GV we are looking for a potential reversal of form given an extra 2f, the ground being the same.¬† I honestly don’t think there is a horse in the field that could improve over the 2f more than the 4 lengths Rewilding got them beat by that day.¬† I think Rewilding will win, Midas Touch should be in close order and the only one in the GV’s first three that might back pedal for the extra 2f is Joshua Tree.¬† That third spot I have between Arctic Cosmos/Total Command/Ted Spread…

If Stoute didn’t train Total Command I wouldn’t touch it.¬† I know Ted Spread travels more in hope than expectation so:

1. Rewilding 

2. Midas Touch

3. Arctic Cosmos

For the tricast.  And a sentimental bit of each-way on Ted Spread, unless I love Total Command more by 3.20.  Enjoy.

Last year's race: Mastery prevails which this blog advised as an e/w...

The $10 Million Dollar Question

Because I am in a shocking rush this morning I wrote this in earnest last night:

Who will win this afternoon’s (or is that evening @ 17.45?) richest race.

I had it all sorted earlier, but now I am having a wobble. Here’s the thing. I stood head on to the Rowley Mile two years ago whilst my money rode on Twice Over. He came to win the Craven Stakes in good style just in front of the grandstand and then just didn’t go past the Raven. And we all know how that horse’s career turned out. So Twice Over is good, but I am a bit worried the clue is in the name and I’ll get mugged off Twice Over.

On the flipside Mastery did me a right turn on Town Moor last September. Added to that he is by my new most favourite sire Sulamani. The trouble is, even in my most devoted mindset, I can see that Sulamani is an influence for stamina and the 1m2f is going to take a bit of toe to win.

When I woke up this morning I had a thought pop into my head.

Gio Ponti = Joe Bridge = Bother

Now I don’t know what to do. Think on as someone older and wiser and more Northern might say.

I feel a bit happier back on Town Moor for the Brocklesby. There will be some lovely 2 yos on show, some by new season sires like Proclamation, Librettist and Iceman. Given the ground I am going to take a leap into the complete unknown and side with Diplomasi. He’s not quite yet two and my record in this race is not brilliant, but Clive Brittain is in roaring form, so in a pin-sticking exercise the shiny thing lands there.

3.25 Kempton / South Easter
4.00 Kempton / Jibouti
Brocklesby Donny / Diplomasi
Lincoln Donny / Smokey Oakey – seems a big price for a former winner with his ground. For the real deal as to his chances visit http://www.marktompkins.co.uk. I will not have a chance until later.

Meydan now looks a bit of a mess:

Finjaan
Presvis
Mastery/Twice Over/Gio Ponti and Gitano Hernando but surely not enough gears…

Smokey Oakey wins the Lincoln in 2008